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Quantify and update uncertainty while drilling - by Roxar

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Reservoir models, and target predictions, come with often an estimate of uncertainty attached - With RMS2013 the uncertainties can be quantified and more important the calculation can be updated and thereby reduce that uncertainty while drilling. Roxar's Knut Midtveit explains how.

The process of building a reservoir model involves a lot of uncertainty, it is often debated how much uncertainty there are and often it is difficult to combine all uncertainties. With latest RMS 2013 additions one can actually combine the uncertainties on estimating reservoir layers and also quantify the uncertainty, says Knut Midtveit, Global Account Manager Roxar

He was speaking at the Digital Energy Journal February Aberdeen conference 'doing more with drilling data'.

As a well has been planned, a prognosis is made there are often risks identified with entering certain reservoir layers. Frequently operators find it challenging when entering zones with low or high pressure or there might be other drilling problems. Knowing when the drill bit will enter these formations is quite important.

With today's modelling technology in RMS2013 one can get a good estimate of when the bit will meet the zones that might give you problems and one can calculate the uncertainty or standard deviation of that estimate.

As the drilling commences new data arrives, usually by WITMLS data stream. But utilizing the new data and rerunning the calculations a better estimate can be made. And since more data is used the uncertainty will be smaller also.

Drillers will know more accurately when the drill bit will enter next zone and the drilling can be managed with fewer problems.

Watch Knut Midveit's talk on video and download slides at
http://www.digitalenergyjournal.com/video/889.aspx



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